Overview
As 5G device adoption continues to grow, 5G development is accelerating. 5G networks are expected to absorb part of the 4G-LTE network traffic load to reduce 4G expansion and new-build capital expenditure. Offload ratio has become a key operational KPI. Improving 5G user network experience and realizing 5G network value are priorities for operators.
In July 2021, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and multiple ministries issued the "5G Application Sail Action Plan (2021–2023)", targeting a 5G access traffic share above 50% by 2023. Some operators in the Chinese market set challenging targets, such as a 45% overall offload ratio by the end of 2022, with some cities targeting 50%. By 2022 only a few provinces exceeded a 30% 5G offload ratio, so meeting operator goals remains challenging.
1.1 Four-step, three-dimensional operational plan
The four main factors influencing 5G offload ratio are 5G device penetration, 5G device online rate, 5G traffic residence ratio, and DOU coefficient for online users. The "four-step, three-dimensional" integrated solution aims to increase 5G offload through four steps—acquisition, activation, retention, and stimulation—implemented across three dimensions: marketing, network, and devices.
Acquisition: Grow the user base
As of Q3 2022, China had about 520 million 5G mobile users, with penetration near 34%. More than 80% of newly released phones in the market support 5G, so new customers are likely to have 5G-capable devices. However, operators must still target the large installed base of legacy users to sustain device penetration growth.
Marketing builds a five-dimensional user profile using consumption, service experience, device, age, and region data. Based on these profiles, operators target three promotional paths: plan upgrade, device replacement, and combined plan-device upgrade. Strategies include contract incentives, device vouchers, installment plans, and credit-based purchases to match user needs and accelerate device replacement to increase 5G penetration.
Activation: Encourage users to go online
For many operators the device online rate exceeds 70% in most provinces and cities, but the main reason users do not go online is that they keep the 5G switch turned off. Market research identifies the top three reasons for keeping the 5G switch off: lack of understanding of 5G; no 5G coverage in usual areas; and perceived higher battery drain with 5G.
Addressing these causes requires coordinated actions between marketing and network teams to ensure users enable the 5G switch on their devices.
Marketing actions include SMS and public account pushes and in-store guidance to help users enable 5G/SA switches, identifying 5G-capable devices currently on 4G plans and guiding plan changes, and offering trial 5G data to encourage usage and increase long-term willingness to keep 5G enabled.
Network teams should analyze users' typical locations to find coverage gaps and ensure network-device matching. By March 2022, China had deployed 1.56 million active 5G base stations, and deployments were expected to exceed 2 million by the end of 2022, making 5G the fastest-deployed generation of cellular technology in China.
Operators need to maintain and improve 5G network performance to sustain users' willingness to use 5G. For users who briefly try 5G then disable it, analyze their usual-location network state and ensure network health. Because 5G devices often use more antennas and bandwidth, terminal power consumption can increase; network-side energy optimization strategies should be introduced to reduce device power use and address battery concerns.
Retention: Increase traffic residence
5G residence capability depends on coverage, network performance, optimization, and device capabilities. A 5G user pyramid traffic model helps quickly identify high-backflow scenarios and guide targeted interventions to improve retention.
The pyramid backflow model splits 5G user traffic by mode, cell type, and scenario to guide targeted field measures, including strengthening coverage, tuning parameters, focusing on backflow, and researching power-saving measures.
- Strengthen coverage: Outdoor coverage is largely in place, but deep-indoor coverage in residential and commercial buildings still shows gaps. Continue building and optimizing deep-indoor sites. For town and rural areas, broader coverage gaps remain; improve coverage according to user distribution.
- Optimize network parameters: Continue studying interference suppression, inter-frequency coordination, demodulation enhancement, and other topics. Validate performance parameters, optimize interworking parameters by scenario, and deploy intelligent orchestration, including quality-based handover functions that balance thresholds and user experience.
- Focus on user backflow: For 5G users that fall back to 4G, combine CDT/MR data for grid-based visualization. Split backflow traffic by NSA-only vs. dual-mode users based on reported UE capabilities, and separate indoor/outdoor backflow at MR sampling points to enable precise high-backflow analysis.
- Study power-saving mechanisms: Apply AI-based algorithms on the RAN side. Model historical traffic load and use time-series forecasting to predict traffic. Choose optimal power-saving windows and methods per cell to balance base station energy savings with user perception, supporting users' continued residence on 5G networks.
Stimulation: Identify usage potential
Marketing should work on plan promotions, data promotions, and 5G service development. Identify 5G-capable devices still on 4G plans and guide plan changes for users with insufficient plan data. For low-DOU users, use targeted care and data gifts to encourage usage. For 5G new services, plan packages and data bundles to accelerate service adoption.
1.2 City-Network coordination for operational improvement
City-network coordination means marketing and network teams work together: network builds follow market needs and market actions follow network capabilities. Around the four factors affecting 5G offload ratio, implement marketing "three-pronged" and network "two-line" measures to effectively increase 5G residence ratio.
Improving 5G offload requires coordination among an operator's marketing, network, equipment vendors, and device vendors to define end-to-end measures. Based on the factors above, measures can be summarized as "more users, more online, more residence, higher DOU."
- Device replacement: Model device-replacement users by device, network behavior, and experience. Use machine learning to identify 4G users with high 5G replacement potential and accelerate 5G user growth.
- Switch marketing: Coordinate city and network teams to increase the rate of users enabling the 5G switch. Identify users who have connected to 5G and push SMS messages, then use targeted marketing to address reasons for not enabling. Identify priority areas where 5G coverage exists but the switch is off, and use field campaigns and SMS/store/support visits to increase enablement rates.
- Targeted coverage: Use big data to derive 5G user profiles by DOU, device, consumption ability, user traits, service preference, and experience. Prioritize 5G buildout in areas dense with high-potential users. The "1+N+M" scenario solution focuses on a core of 5G residence ratio, N dimensions of high-value areas, and M scenario types to match solutions to scenario characteristics.
- Precision planning: Gather data from NMS, SEQ, and engineering references to obtain value, user, traffic, scenario, and competitor information. Assign weights based on market development and compute site-level value scores to prioritize high-score sites. Value-based planning helps resolve indoor/outdoor weak coverage grids and strengthen continuous 5G coverage.
1.3 Perception-focused improvements
First, apply targeted measures and multiple channels to scale 5G adoption. In marketing, strengthen device operations and ensure 5G device availability, highlighting key 5G devices. Use public and enterprise channels, SMS from base stations, BSS pop-ups, and public account pushes to accelerate customer 5G upgrades and increase 5G device penetration. Focus on new and replacement customers and recommend 5G-specific services such as video ringback tones and cloud storage, promote 5G plans, and guide customers to experience 5G networks.
Second, target hotspots and accelerate deep 5G coverage construction. For network quality improvements, take a customer-perception-driven approach and advance deep-indoor 5G capabilities. Establish dedicated task forces to break down and address challenges.
- "Window offload": Build 5G capabilities in transportation hubs and metro stations to ensure high-quality 5G availability in key scenarios.
- "Targeted offload": Prioritize indoor deep-coverage planning for malls and hospitals that have high 4G load, deploying 5G capabilities first to offload 4G and improve both 4G and 5G customer perception in high-traffic 4G areas.
- "Staggered offload": Focus on campus construction windows such as summer breaks and develop differentiated plans based on campus characteristics. Leverage coordination between operators to jointly plan campus builds and accelerate campus 5G capability deployment.
Finally, coordinate front and back offices and use multiple channels to stimulate 5G activity among existing customers. For regions with high 4G load and low 5G load, guide customers to enable the 5G switch to improve 5G online rates. Stimulated sectors show a clear increase in average 5G traffic per sector, effectively easing 4G network load and reducing the number of extremely congested 4G sectors. Close front-back coordination and timely publication of newly covered buildings to marketing enable targeted stimulation and sustained deep 5G coverage.
With policy guidance encouraging moderately advanced deployment of 5G and other new infrastructure, 5G networks are evolving from "available" to "well usable". Better networks drive better experience and increased usage. Continued improvement in 5G offload ratios will further expand commercial 5G scale and enable new large-scale 5G application scenarios across industries, supporting digital transformation and broader economic development.
