Interest in humanoid robots has been growing rapidly in recent years. Tesla's announcement of the "Optimus" prototype in October 2022 significantly raised the profile of the sector and accelerated industry attention. This momentum has driven more companies to enter the field and intensified investment and development activity.
Market research institutions estimate that, in an optimistic scenario, 2025 could mark the first year of industrialized deployment for humanoid robots in China. Estimates put the Chinese market size for humanoid robots at about 3 billion CNY in 2026 and potentially exceeding 38 billion CNY by 2030.
The sizable market opportunity has attracted many new entrants. Based on players observed in the industry, humanoid robot participants can be grouped into five main camps: veteran manufacturers, startups, cross-industry players such as automakers, smartphone and home appliance companies, algorithm and compute/software companies, and native robot developers. Entry into the field generally follows two patterns: direct entry, by launching humanoid robot divisions or subsidiaries; and indirect entry, by investing in or partnering with companies in the humanoid robot supply chain.
Veteran manufacturers
Strengths: technical foundation, accumulated experience, market position
Representative companies: Boston Dynamics, Engineered Arts, UBTECH, Leju Robotics, Steelman Technology, Weijing Robotics
Many veteran firms, particularly those established earlier outside China, began humanoid robot development years or decades ago. Their long development timelines have allowed them to accumulate technical depth, application experience, and market recognition. For example, Boston Dynamics has been developing humanoid-capable platforms since the early 1990s and has accumulated decades of experience in dynamic motion and control.
Veteran companies have undergone multiple rounds of technical route exploration and real-world trials, generating practical experience that represents significant time and financial investment. Some listed veteran firms also have advantages in financing and risk tolerance, which support longer development cycles.
Limitations: many veteran firms have invested heavily in R&D without finding mature mass-market commercial scenarios, so sustained high spending has made revenue and profitability a persistent challenge. Longer timelines can also lead to reduced organizational agility, conservative decision making, and entrenched management or technical practices that slow further innovation.
Automakers, smartphone and home appliance companies
Strengths: capital resources, application scenarios, transferable experience
Representative companies: Tesla, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, XPeng, NIO, Toyota, Xiaomi, Samsung, Haier, Dyson
Automakers, smartphone makers, and home appliance firms are natural downstream customers and have many strategic motivations to develop humanoid robots. They typically have strong capital bases, which can sustain the long-term investment required for humanoid robot R&D and iterative testing.
These cross-industry players also provide immediate application scenarios. A humanoid robot prototype can be trialed directly in manufacturing lines or service environments, with frontline staff providing timely feedback that helps close the loop between development and deployment. This integration reduces communication and testing costs and can avoid certain gaps that other entrants face.
Additionally, automakers and appliance manufacturers can leverage existing R&D and production expertise when developing humanoid robots, reducing some development risks. For new automakers that combine strong software and hardware capabilities, this integrated experience can be an important advantage.
Limitations: crossing into robotics still presents substantial technical and organizational challenges. Cross-industry entrants must demonstrate long-term commitment and stable operations; companies facing broader business pressures or strategic shifts may deprioritize or exit humanoid robot projects.
Startups
Strengths: innovation potential, fundraising capability
Representative companies: Figure AI, Sanctuary AI, Apptronik, Zhiyuan Robotics, Unitree Robotics, Xingdong Era, Dreamway Technology, Galaxy General Robotics, Kepler Robotics, Entropy Intelligence, Fourier Intelligence, Zhujidongli, MagicLab, 1X Technologies, Agility Robotics
Humanoid robot startups often originate from university labs, research institutes, or large tech firms. They typically bring fresh technical ideas and a willingness to challenge existing approaches. Startups can leverage cutting-edge research and novel architectures to pursue differentiated designs.
Startups also tend to attract significant venture funding when market interest is high. Large financing rounds are common, and many startups have raised substantial capital over short timeframes. However, large funding brings pressure to deliver results quickly. The ability to manage rapid resource deployment, execute against milestones, and convert prototypes into viable products is a key risk. In addition, founders with primarily technical backgrounds may lack experience in certain aspects of business operations or large-scale manufacturing, which can create vulnerabilities as the company scales.
Algorithm, compute and software companies
Strengths: AI and intelligence capabilities
Representative companies: iFlytek, CloudMinds, Lobed
Algorithm and software firms contribute the intelligence layer for humanoid robots. AI capabilities are critical for human-robot interaction, perception, and embodied intelligence, which are key gaps for many current humanoid platforms.
Specific areas of contribution include:
- Human-machine interaction: large models and natural language interfaces enable low-code or even no-code control, allowing operators to instruct robots using natural language.
- Visual inspection: advanced perception improves environment recognition and obstacle avoidance, especially in challenging indoor or outdoor lighting conditions.
- Embodied intelligence: multi-sensor integration lets robots adapt manipulation strategies based on perceived material properties or tactile feedback.
Limitations: software companies face a "soft-to-hard" integration challenge. Applying algorithmic advantages requires building or partnering for hardware development and systems integration capabilities, which can be a significant shift for pure software firms.
Native robot developers
Strengths: hardware development, deployment experience
Representative companies: Elephant Robotics, Aubo Robotics, Fude Robot, Bossgoo Robotics, Junpu Intelligence
Several industrial robot manufacturers and systems integrators have begun extending their expertise into humanoid robots. These firms bring years of hardware development experience and proven production-line applications that can inform humanoid robot design and manufacturing.
Examples include new humanoid product announcements and research collaborations. Firms with existing robotics hardware backgrounds can apply lessons learned from industrial deployments to improve reliability and manufacturability of humanoid platforms.
Other companies across diverse sectors are quietly developing humanoid capabilities without public disclosure; these efforts may emerge later as the market matures.
Outlook
Which companies will survive and which will dominate the market will depend on their ability to combine technical progress, sustainable business models, and clear application scenarios. Time will determine which approaches yield practical, repeatable deployments and commercial viability.
