Q4 2023 overview
In Q4 2023, major smartphone manufacturers all reported significant year-over-year increases in foldable phone shipments. Research firm TechInsights reported that the global foldable phone market grew by 42% year over year in Q4 2023. Geopolitical and economic instability, along with weakness at Samsung, led to sharp declines in key North American and Western European markets. The Asia-Pacific region led shipment growth for the quarter, with Samsung, Huawei, and Honor ranking as the top three brands.
Market rankings and shipment leaders
The top nine foldable phone vendors for the quarter were, in order: Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Motorola, vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, OnePlus, and Google.
Samsung remained the overall leader in foldable phones, but it was overtaken by Huawei and Honor in the horizontal, book-style foldable segment; Samsung's share in that segment fell to about 20%. Samsung's lineup of vertical clamshell foldables helped it retain the overall market share lead. Analysts note that Asia-Pacific is the only region where horizontal, book-style foldables dominate, accounting for nearly 75% of shipments there; in other regions, book-style models represent under 50% of foldable sales.
In the vertical clamshell segment, Samsung held over 50% of the global market, followed by Motorola. Other vendors have smaller shares in this segment.
Shipments by brand and panel volumes
Quarterly shipment changes by brand in Q4 2023 included: Honor up 914%, Motorola up 898%, vivo up 235%, OPPO up 198%, Xiaomi up 115%, and Huawei up 35%. Samsung's shipments fell 32% year over year.
Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) reported that panel shipments for foldable phones totaled 4.2 million units in Q4 2023, a 33% year-over-year increase and a record for the period.
Top models and model counts
Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold5 and Galaxy Z Flip5 sold below expectations but still led global sales in Q4 2023. Huawei and Honor both increased their brand shares.
In Q4 2023, 23 distinct foldable phone models shipped worldwide. Among the global top 10 best-selling foldable models, Samsung accounted for four models, Honor and OPPO had two each, and Huawei and Xiaomi each had one.
The Galaxy Z Flip5 remained the single best-selling model, followed by the Huawei Mate X5, Honor Magic Vs2, Samsung Galaxy Z Fold5, and OPPO Find N3 Flip.
Outlook for 2024
Samsung remains the largest foldable vendor, but its lead has narrowed. With a model refresh gap at Samsung, Huawei could surpass Samsung in Q1 or Q2 2024 with the Mate X5 and Pocket2 series; this would mark the first time Samsung has been overtaken in the foldable market. DSCC data show that Huawei placed larger panel orders with BOE in Q4 2023, so BOE's foldable panel procurement for the quarter exceeded that of Samsung Display (SDC).
Under Huawei's strong performance, the foldable phone market was expected to grow 105% year over year in Q1 2024. DSCC forecasts Samsung will reclaim the lead in the second half of 2024 and maintain a sizable advantage over Huawei for the full year.
DSCC expects 25 different foldable models to ship in Q1 2024 and 27 different models for the full year 2024. DSCC also projects higher full-year shares for Huawei and Honor, while OPPO and vivo may see market share declines after shelving some vertical and horizontal foldable projects.
DSCC anticipates Huawei will introduce at least two new book-style foldable models in 2024, and that Honor, Motorola, Samsung, and others will update their book-style portfolios. Overall, book-style foldables are expected to grow their share of the foldable market in 2024.
Form factor context and adoption challenges
Over the history of mobile phones, non-foldable smartphones replaced feature phones by offering new user experiences. After years of iteration, non-foldable smartphones face a hardware and feature plateau: users have less incentive to upgrade, and replacement cycles are lengthening. Non-foldable phone size is constrained by user demand for portability, limiting the ability to deliver larger displays. Foldable phones can preserve portability while providing larger-screen experiences, creating a renewed product opportunity.
Whether foldable phones become mainstream in 2024 depends on overcoming several challenges. Technical issues such as visible creases and screen durability still require improvement. High prices remain a barrier for many consumers. Market competition is intensifying as brands introduce new models to gain share. Wider adoption will require advances in technology, lower costs, and improved user experience, as well as positive consumer acceptance and market feedback.
