Overview
Many expect 6G to introduce breakthrough technologies or major surprises. Based on current developments, that outcome seems unlikely.
Limits of Core Theory
Since the invention of the telegraph and telephone, modern communication technology has evolved for nearly two centuries. Despite rapid technological progress, the core theoretical foundations have changed little. At its essence, the field still revolves around electricity and magnetism.
All communications systems remain constrained by the same theoretical limits. More than 70 years after Claude Shannon proposed the Shannon formula, that limit still stands like an immovable mountain.
Our advances such as 5G, and the anticipated 6G, are constrained by those theoretical boundaries. Without breakthroughs in basic theory, developments tend to be incremental, extracting the last usable value from electromagnetic waves.
Trade-offs and Incremental Improvements
Rate, coverage, energy consumption, device density, cost, and security present competing demands. Resources are limited, so improving one area often sacrifices others.
Innovations proposed by experts often produce only small gains. If they are mature in time, they are included in the 5G standard; otherwise they are left for 6G. That approach is pragmatic, if somewhat uninspiring.
Demand-Side Challenges
The supply side is constrained by limitations in the technology development path, but the larger problem lies on the demand side.
5G has so far failed to gain widespread traction in enterprise and government markets, and the expected boom in industry-specific applications has not materialized. If deployment produces little tangible benefit, momentum will fade and investment will slow.
3GPP R17 and the Search for Direction
3GPP R17 collected potential topics for future development, which effectively point toward 6G. Aside from terahertz and low-Earth orbit satellites, most topics amount to various enhancements to existing capabilities.
Why is this the case? Because clear new directions are hard to find, so the work focuses on patching and improving current systems.
Stakeholders are watching 5G performance closely. If 5G achieves even modest commercial success, there will be an incentive to extend and market enhanced versions as 6G. If 5G does not succeed, there will be little motivation to invest in 6G until new market pain points and demand are identified.
Terahertz and Satellite Limitations
Terahertz technology faces significant constraints whether used for mobile broadband or for IoT scenarios, limiting practical applications. Satellite communications are also unlikely to serve mainstream consumer needs. These technologies could support enhanced connectivity, but positioning them as the core of 6G seems unlikely; at best they represent an extension of 5G.
Long-Term Outlook
Existing 4G networks and the 5G deployments under way are likely to form the backbone of human mobile communications for the next two decades. Rapid replacement by suddenly emerging 6G or 7G systems is improbable.
In other words, growth in the connectivity market will likely be gradual rather than disruptive over the next twenty years. This sector requires steady development rather than rushed rollout.
Where to Focus
For those seeking promising areas, focus on computation. Advances in AI compute capacity and practical deployment are more likely to create new markets than incremental connectivity improvements. Edge computing and distributed computing, including blockchain-based architectures, also carry commercial potential. Application-layer markets generally offer higher returns than core infrastructure.
If organizations choose to remain focused on connectivity, they should prepare for a prolonged slowdown in demand; the market has entered a new economic cycle and the duration of this period is uncertain.
Without clear demand, upgrading technology for its own sake is not meaningful. As one filmmaker put it, "If you do not even know where the target is, what is the point of drawing the bow every day?"
Conclusion
Rather than aimlessly developing incremental connectivity features, it would be more effective to invest in fundamental theory and talent development. Achieving breakthroughs in basic theory remains the only long-term path to meaningful progress in communications.
